Seismic Swarm PS20181029.1: Analysis of Activity Near Tagbina, Philippines
Seismic swarm PS20181029.1 occurred in the Philippines on 29 October 2018, centered 9 km southeast of Tagbina in Surigao del Sur province on Mindanao island. The sequence began at 13:41 local time and concluded at 21:36, encompassing five earthquakes over 7 hours and 55 minutes. This event provides insight into localized tectonic stress release within a highly active subduction zone.
The Philippines lies at the convergent boundary between the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate. Subduction along the Philippine Trench drives frequent seismic activity, while the left-lateral Philippine Fault Zone accommodates lateral motion across the archipelago. The swarm location near Tagbina sits within this complex tectonic setting, where shallow crustal faults interact with deeper subduction-related structures. Such swarms often reflect fluid migration or stress triggering along fault segments rather than a single mainshock-aftershock sequence.
Event details reveal predominantly shallow foci at 10 km depth for the initial four shocks, with magnitudes ranging from 5.1 to 5.3. These occurred in rapid succession between 13:41 and 14:51, suggesting clustered slip on a shallow fault plane. The final event at 21:36 registered magnitude 4.3 but originated at 89 km depth, indicating possible involvement of the subducting slab. The tight temporal clustering and magnitude similarity underscore the swarm character, distinct from typical aftershock decay patterns.
Historical records since 2000 document only four prior swarms in the immediate region: one each in 2001 and 2009, and two in 2014. This low frequency suggests that swarm-type activity remains episodic rather than routine. The 2018 swarm aligns with this pattern, highlighting intermittent periods of distributed microseismicity amid the broader background of larger events.
A notable regional development occurred on 2 December 2023 with a magnitude 7.6 earthquake located 19 km east of Gamut, approximately 9 km from the 2018 swarm center. This event, one of the strongest in recent years, likely influenced local stress fields and may relate to ongoing strain accumulation along nearby fault segments.
Geological monitoring in the Philippines relies on networks operated by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) alongside international catalogs. Continued observation of swarm parameters aids in distinguishing tectonic from volcanic influences, although no surface volcanic features are directly associated with the Tagbina area.
References
- Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) seismic bulletins
- United States Geological Survey (USGS) earthquake catalog
- SeismoSight internal swarm classification records